I was thinking this morning about the importance of things that endure. In the investing business, one of the things that most endures, I believe, is thoughtful diversification. And it becomes very, very valuable when equity valuations are very high, which is exactly where they are right now.
What got me thinking about this many years ago was an opportunity I had as a young MBA student at Wharton. I met a young Jeff Bezos, who was creating a company called Amazon because he thought the internet was going to be a big deal. I think we can all see the remarkable achievements that followed, and how Amazon under his leadership really has changed the world.
Focus on What Will Not Change
I followed his career quite closely, and one of the things I find most remarkable about his thinking is how he once described the purpose of Amazon. In a world so filled with change, he chose to focus on delivering value in the areas that would not change. Generally, everybody loves to buy things cheaper, and everybody loves to get their things faster. That makes a ton of sense to me.
So when it comes to investing, what are the things that endure? I often think of investing, particularly investing for retirement, as a long-term journey. The retiring traveler in this analogy has to pack thoughtfully because these finite resources are meant to last through 20 years, 30 years, the rest of their lives.
In a world so filled with change, I believe that the smartest move is to focus on the things that will not change.
Packing for a 20 or 30 Year Journey
If you were going on a journey that long, and you had to pack a kit to help you get successfully to the end of it, you would probably be pretty thoughtful about the tools you pack. That is why one of the things I am most proud of at CWA is our suite of investment strategies. I believe it contains many different tools in the toolbox that our advisors can use to help their clients reach their goals across that long journey.
A journey of 20 or 30 years, what is that even going to look like? What new challenges will we need to overcome? I think we have to be humble about all the great unknowns that we will face together with our clients. That is why I keep coming back to diversification as a principle that has historically endured and never goes out of style, much like the goal Bezos laid out for what he wanted Amazon to achieve.
Why Valuation Raises the Stakes
In my view, diversification tends to become more valuable as equity valuations become more expensive, and there is a very simple reason for that. When you put your money at risk, one of the chief long-term determinants of your returns is the valuation at which you start the journey.
But just as Jeff Bezos could be confident that people would always want their things cheaper and faster, I believe investors will always have the need for diversification over the course of that long journey. Because over a journey that long, no one tool is going to be enough. In my opinion there is no time like the present to begin preparing, to get thoughtfully set up in advance of whatever challenges we are going to face. It has always been my personal experience that it is better to be one year early than one day late. So start today.