Trends & Tail Risks

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Ask Better Questions to Make More Money

POSTED ON June 15th  - POSTED IN Gold, Indicators, Price of Gold, Relative Value of Gold (and Credit)

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | June 14, 2017  Learning How to Make Money in the Markets: Studying Companies After earning my MBA at Wharton, I joined T. Rowe Price as an equity analyst. There I finally could study and educate myself about sustainable growth companies such as 3M, Ecolab, Monsanto and other American icons […]

Credit Watching: Exter’s Inverted Pyramid At Work

POSTED ON May 31st  - POSTED IN Credit

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 31, 2017  I write “Trends and Tail Risks” to help explain our investment team’s framework, and our investments, to our clients and friends.  Many topics recur again and again, focusing on the miracle of the market’s use of price to bring supply and demand into balance (Remember your Micro […]

The Inventory Cycle Turns Down (Part Two)

POSTED ON May 18th  - POSTED IN Cycles

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 18, 2017  Our goal in writing “Trends and Tail Risks” is to help our readers understand the principles and thinking that drive our investment decisions.  Our research makes us different and is a big part of the value we seek to add to client portfolios.  Two of our […]

Preparing for the Peak of the Inventory Cycle

POSTED ON May 4th  - POSTED IN Uncategorized

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | May 4, 2017  In December’s Navigating Confused Seas, we noted our expectation that 2017 would likely experience a stronger first half of the year, followed by a mid-year peak in the inventory cycle.  Recent events continue to support that conclusion, as we explain below. Our optimism for the first […]

Hippocratic Investing: First Do No Harm

POSTED ON April 20th  - POSTED IN Uncategorized

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | April 20, 2017  Cartoons on Saturday morning were a fun part of my childhood – cartoons and the chocolate ice cream that my Mom let me eat for breakfast while I watched them.   I can still picture the scene in the “Road Runner” when a determined Wile E. […]

Clients Are an Investment Firm’s Most Important Assets

POSTED ON April 6th  - POSTED IN Uncategorized

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | April 6, 2017  Nobody would blame you if you thought that an investment firm’s most important assets are those that go up and down in the markets every day.  But you would be wrong.  Clients are an investment firm’s most important assets.  Believe me, I understand the allure of […]