Trends & Tail Risks

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Potash: A Study in Patience

POSTED ON December 14th  - POSTED IN Art of Valuation, Replacement Cost

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 13, 2017 Our clients may have noticed a recent addition to their portfolios, POT.  This is not an investment in cannabis, rather the stock of the world’s largest fertilizer equity, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan.  The company is a low cost producer in the much-beleaguered fertilizer industry.  Fundamentals there […]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond

POSTED ON November 30th  - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 29, 2017 Dr. Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb   “Dr. Strangelove” is a wickedly absurd movie that tackled a weighty issue.  Made in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the movie features a rogue military base commander launching a nuclear […]

Research Trip to Ireland Suggests Europe’s Financial Problems Are Not Over

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 15, 2017 What I Learned at Kilkenomics in Ireland Last weekend I attended the “Kilkenomics” economics conference in Kilkenny, Ireland.  David McWilliams, the brilliant Irish economist who foresaw the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, has sponsored it for the last eight years.  The goal of the conference is to […]

Don’t be a Turkey!

POSTED ON November 2nd  - POSTED IN Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | November 1, 2017 After reflecting upon the experience of nearly twenty years of professional investing, I have concluded that investing is a strange way to make a living.  It requires the daily safe operation of a task that will take years to complete.  Accordingly, successful investing is a like […]

Searching for Junonias: The Art of Rejection

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 18, 2017 One morning last week I was walking on the Naples’ beach with my son and found a rare shell, known as a Junonia.  This is the only Junonia I have ever found, despite four and a half years of beachcombing since we moved to Naples.  We […]

Homage to Catalonia

POSTED ON October 5th  - POSTED IN Indicators, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 4, 2017 Clients and friends know I am an avid student of history.  Over the years, my studies have broadened from markets to politics.  And that’s for good reason: politics are the ultimate arbiters of economics.   More than a decade ago, I reached the conclusion that the […]