Trends & Tail Risks

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

The Blind Men and the Elephant: De-Globalization Accelerates as Tariffs Rise

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | March 7, 2018 President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are in the news.  They are an important development to understand but can only be understood in the context of all the global changes now underway.  Our goal in writing “Trends and Tail Risks” is to help our clients and […]

The Humiliation Machine: Take the Risks That You Get Paid to Take

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 21, 2018 There are certain things I refuse to do.  I don’t skydive.  I won’t play Russian Roulette.  I have no interest in climbing Mount Everest, even though “it is there.”  And I have never, nor will I ever, play the lottery. There are surely some that would […]

Volatility Makes a Comeback

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | February 8, 2018 Thoughtful Investing is About “Staying Rich” or “Getting Rich Slowly” In his 2004 book “The Seven Basic Plots,” Christopher Booker famously outlines his belief that there are only seven basic plot lines in all of literature.  He defined them as 1.) overcoming the monster, 2.) rags […]

Feed the Ducks While They Are Quacking: Time to Reduce Lower Quality Bond Positions

POSTED ON January 25th  - POSTED IN Bonds, Credit, Indicators, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 25, 2018 Each industry has its own slang and lingo unique to it.  The business of investment research is no exception.  When I look back over my near twenty-year career in this business, I find a rich trove of investing lore and pithy sayings.  One of the funniest, […]

The Most Powerful Research Tool is a Great Network

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | January 10, 2018 This publication began its life more than three years ago as a communication directly to our existing clients about the logic behind the investments in their portfolio and the opportunities and threats we were identifying in the markets.  Our goal was to help clients see the […]

Clients Deserve More Than “Conventional Failure”

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | December 27, 2017 The Fiduciary Model Promotes Better Outcomes for Clients Than the Broker Model Many financial advisory firms make a big deal of the fact that they are fiduciaries.  I believe that this is a better model for clients.  Why?  Fiduciary duty demands a higher duty of care […]