Trends & Tail Risks

A bi-weekly publication dedicated to the principle that deeper and broader knowledge drives superior investment results

Homage to Catalonia

POSTED ON October 5th  - POSTED IN Indicators, Portfolio Construction for a Challenging World

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | October 4, 2017 Clients and friends know I am an avid student of history.  Over the years, my studies have broadened from markets to politics.  And that’s for good reason: politics are the ultimate arbiters of economics.   More than a decade ago, I reached the conclusion that the […]

Hurricane Irma and the Limits of Prediction

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 20, 2017 Days ago Naples bore the full brunt of Hurricane Irma, one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes ever recorded.  Given how much worse things could have turned out, we have a lot for which we are thankful.  Our families are safe.  The damage to our […]

Rising Steel Prices: Arbitrage at Work in the Steel Markets

POSTED ON September 6th  - POSTED IN Uncategorized

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | September 6, 2017 Prevailing conditions are such that we may see a steel shortage in the U.S. in the next few months.  Our views on the steel market have changed a number of times over the last year or so.  In fact, they have changed from bullish, to bearish, […]

Legendary Value Investor John Neff: Investing into the Peak

POSTED ON August 24th  - POSTED IN Art of Valuation

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | August23, 2017  John Neff: Legendary Value Investor John Neff is a legendary mutual fund manager.  He managed Wellington’s Windsor Fund from 1964 to 1995.  During that time, he outperformed the market – net of fees – by 3.1% per year.  Now 3.1% may not sound like a lot, but […]

Investing is a Team Sport

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | August 9, 2017  Imagine my pleasant surprise the other day when examining an inbound portfolio I found a long-held position in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.  You don’t see many of those.  Although this client’s investment in Berkshire began as only a small position decades ago, it had grown over […]

The Discipline of Discomfort

By LEWIS JOHNSON – Co-Chief Investment Officer | July 26, 2017  Vacation time!  It’s time for our annual week-long escape from the oppressive July heat of South Florida.  This means loading everyone – me, the wife, all three kids, and Sherman the Wonderdog – into our car for the two day drive to the North Carolina mountains. […]